Overnight index swap markets are now pricing roughly a 92% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate by 25 basis points at its 28–29 September board meeting, after Governor Michele Bullock declined to push back on that pricing during a fireside chat in Sydney on 22 September 2026. That is as close to a pre-committed RBA September rate hike as central bank communication typically gets.
This article summarises what Bullock actually said at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) lunch, what markets have priced in, and what it means for borrowers, drawing on the event coverage and gf6.com’s directory context for banks in Australia.
The finding — what Bullock actually said — RBA September rate hike
Speaking one week before the board meets, Bullock told the CEDA audience that supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to manage and that policy must address their second-round inflationary effects. She also indicated that an unemployment rate of 4.5%–5.0% might help curb inflation, up from the current 4.5%. Her remarks echoed hawkish parliamentary testimony delivered the previous Friday. Understanding the RBA September rate hike in full requires looking at these details closely.
The key numbers around the event are set out below.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Event date | 22 September 2026 |
| Venue | CEDA lunch, Sydney |
| RBA board meeting | 28–29 September |
| Current cash rate | 4.35% |
| Expected hike size | 25 basis points |
| OIS-implied probability of a September hike | approximately 92% |
| Cash rate increases already delivered in 2026 | 75 basis points |
| Current unemployment rate | 4.5% |
| Unemployment range Bullock flagged as potentially disinflationary | 4.5%–5.0% |
| RBA August projection: inflation back to 2%–3% midpoint | late 2027 |
The event was reported by multiple outlets, including ABC News, MNI Markets and Proactive Investors.
What it means
The most direct read is that the RBA has effectively let market pricing stand. Central banks routinely use speeches in the quiet week before a decision to steer expectations; when a governor does not lean against a near-fully-priced move, that silence is itself a signal. With OIS markets at roughly 92%, a decision to hold on 29 September would now be the surprise, not a hike. These figures put the RBA September rate hike into clearer perspective.
Bullock’s framing around unemployment is the more analytically interesting piece. Suggesting that a jobless rate of 4.5%–5.0% might be needed to curb inflation — from a current 4.5% — implies the RBA sees the labour market as still too tight to bring inflation back to the 2%–3% target midpoint on the timetable it published in August, which pointed to late 2027. This context matters for anyone following the RBA September rate hike.
For borrowers, the mechanics are straightforward. A 25-basis-point move would take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%, on top of the 75 basis points already delivered during 2026. Commonwealth Bank and Westpac have both brought forward their expected hike calls to September, citing higher oil prices and increasingly hawkish RBA commentary, which is likely to feed through to variable mortgage rates and business lending costs relatively quickly. It is a central thread in the wider RBA September rate hike.
The oil-price angle also matters beyond Australia. Bullock’s emphasis on the second-round effects of supply shocks is the kind of language other Asia-Pacific central banks tend to watch closely, and it is consistent with a broader regional debate about how far monetary policy should respond to energy-driven inflation. Whether other central banks follow is not something the CEDA remarks themselves establish. Such details shaped how the RBA September rate hike unfolded.
Explore the full data behind this article: bank branches worldwide and ATMs worldwide in the gf6.com directory.
Methodology
This article is a rewrite in English of a real, already-public event: Governor Michele Bullock’s fireside chat at the CEDA lunch in Sydney on 22 September 2026, first reported by ABC News and corroborated by MNI Markets and Proactive Investors. All figures — the 4.35% current cash rate, the 25-basis-point expected move, the ~92% OIS-implied probability, the 75 basis points of 2026 hikes to date, the 4.5% unemployment rate, the 4.5%–5.0% range Bullock cited, and the late-2027 inflation projection — are taken directly from that reporting and are reproduced without recalculation.
gf6.com is a worldwide directory of bank branches and ATMs, curated manually since 2020 and covering roughly 445,000 financial locations. The directory is a large but incomplete sample of global banking infrastructure and is not an official or government source; we cite it here only for context around Australia’s retail banking network. This is one of the defining aspects of the RBA September rate hike.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Michele Bullock actually announce at the CEDA fireside chat?
She did not announce a rate decision. Bullock spoke about supply shocks being difficult for monetary policy to manage, the need to address their second-round inflationary effects, and suggested that unemployment of 4.5%–5.0% might help curb inflation, up from the current 4.5%. She did not push back on market pricing of a September hike.
How likely is a September 2026 rate hike according to markets?
Overnight index swap markets placed approximately 92% probability on a 25-basis-point increase at the 28–29 September board meeting. That is a market-implied probability, not an RBA commitment.
Where would the cash rate sit after a 25-basis-point hike?
The current cash rate is 4.35%. A 25-basis-point increase would take it to 4.60%. The RBA has already raised the cash rate by 75 basis points during 2026.
When does the RBA expect inflation to return to target?
The RBA’s August projections showed inflation would not return to the 2%–3% target midpoint until late 2027. That timetable predates the September fireside chat and could be revised at future meetings.
Why have Commonwealth Bank and Westpac changed their calls?
Both banks brought forward their expected hike calls to September, citing higher oil prices and increasingly hawkish RBA commentary. Their revised calls align with the near-fully-priced market outcome for the 28–29 September meeting.
Does this article contain independent reporting?
No. It is a rewrite in English of publicly reported facts about the 22 September 2026 event, drawing on ABC News, MNI Markets and Proactive Investors. No figures or claims have been added beyond those sources.
This article was produced with AI assistance from publicly available sources and is handled under our editorial standards and AI policy.
I have been online since 1995. For many years, I worked in the e-commerce sector, setting up several online shops, and have always been interested in data analysis. In 2007, I moved to the Seychelles to work from there or as a digital nomad. In recent years, I have increasingly specialised in the financial sector. I manage the Seychelles’ Commercial Register and am also very familiar with the offshore world. GF6.com is a project I have been working on for many years. I built and curated the 445,000-entry bank database myself over a period of six years, and for the past two years or so I have also been using AI to achieve better structures.
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