The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Chief Economist Paul Conway said the central bank’s 28 October Official Cash Rate decision is ‘completely open’ between leaving rates on hold and delivering another 25 basis-point hike, while still signalling the OCR is ‘most likely’ to rise. He made the remarks on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on 15 October 2026. Understanding the RBNZ OCR decision in full requires looking at these details closely.
This piece sets out what Conway actually said about the RBNZ OCR decision, how it fits with the bank’s recent back-to-back hikes, and what the signal means for anyone tracking rates in banks in New Zealand. The event was first reported by Bloomberg and corroborated by multiple outlets.
The finding — what Conway actually said — RBNZ OCR decision
Conway’s framing matters because it leaves the door open to either outcome without pre-committing the Monetary Policy Committee. The key facts, as reported, are reproduced below exactly. These figures put the RBNZ OCR decision into clearer perspective.
- Date and venue: 15 October 2026, sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, Bangkok.
- Speaker: Paul Conway, Chief Economist, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Next decision: Monetary Policy Review on 28 October 2026.
- Current OCR: 2.75%, after back-to-back hikes in July (to 2.50%) and September (to 2.75%).
- Stance on October: ‘completely open’ between a hold and a 25 basis-point hike.
- Direction bias: OCR still ‘most likely’ to rise.
- Short-term pressures cited: recent oil-price and New Zealand dollar moves adding upward inflation pressure.
- Target band: inflation expected to return to the 1%–3% band in 2027.
In his own words, Conway told Bloomberg Television: “I think for our next decision, it’s wide open. We wanted optionality.” The remarks were also reported by FXStreet and InvestingLive, which independently confirm the two-sided framing.
What it means
A central bank publicly saying its next meeting is ‘wide open’ is unusual language. It tells markets that no path has been locked in, and that the committee is deliberately keeping both a hold and a hike on the table two weeks out from the decision. This context matters for anyone following the RBNZ OCR decision.
At the same time, Conway did not describe the two options as equally likely over the medium term. He said the OCR is still ‘most likely’ to rise, which keeps the directional bias upward even if October itself turns out to be a pause. It is a central thread in the wider RBNZ OCR decision.
The short-term pressures he flagged — oil-price moves and the New Zealand dollar — are the kind of inputs that can shift a near-term inflation profile without changing the underlying outlook. That is consistent with his view that inflation returns to the 1%–3% target band in 2027. Such details shaped how the RBNZ OCR decision unfolded.
For observers of smaller advanced-economy central banks, the signal is a useful case study. The RBNZ is navigating a live hold-versus-hike choice in public, rather than steering expectations hard in one direction, and it is doing so from an international forum where the audience includes global investors.
Explore the full data behind this article: bank branches worldwide and ATMs worldwide in the gf6.com directory.
Methodology
This article is a plain-language rewrite of public reporting on comments by RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway on 15 October 2026. The primary source is Bloomberg, with corroboration from FXStreet and InvestingLive. All figures, dates and attributions in this piece come directly from those reports; no additional data has been added. The country context link points to gf6.com’s own curated worldwide directory of bank branches and ATMs, which has been built and maintained over four years from public sources and ongoing manual research.
Frequently asked questions
What exactly did Paul Conway say about the October RBNZ decision?
He said the 28 October OCR decision is ‘completely open’ between a hold and a 25 basis-point hike, while adding that the OCR is ‘most likely’ to rise.
Where and when did he make these comments?
On 15 October 2026, on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, in remarks to Bloomberg Television.
What is the current OCR in New Zealand?
The Official Cash Rate stands at 2.75%, following back-to-back hikes in July (to 2.50%) and September (to 2.75%).
Why is October described as 'wide open'?
Conway cited recent oil-price and New Zealand dollar moves as short-term sources of upward inflation pressure, while expressing confidence that inflation returns to the 1%–3% target band in 2027. That mix keeps both a hold and a hike on the table.
When is the next scheduled RBNZ decision?
The Monetary Policy Review is on 28 October 2026.
Does this article predict what the RBNZ will do?
No. It only summarises what was publicly said on 15 October 2026 and the context given in the reporting.
This article was produced with AI assistance from publicly available sources and is handled under our editorial standards and AI policy.
I have been online since 1995. For many years, I worked in the e-commerce sector, setting up several online shops, and have always been interested in data analysis. In 2007, I moved to the Seychelles to work from there or as a digital nomad. In recent years, I have increasingly specialised in the financial sector. I manage the Seychelles’ Commercial Register and am also very familiar with the offshore world. GF6.com is a project I have been working on for many years. I built and curated the 445,000-entry bank database myself over a period of six years, and for the past two years or so I have also been using AI to achieve better structures.
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